OmmAlpha · VCP Stage Engine V3 Shadow

Read-only live comparison. Nothing on this page writes to production tables or changes ML predictions.

2026-09-30Live scan date

1Rows shadow-tested

0Stage classifications changed

vcp-stage-v3-shadow-1.0Shadow engine

Core V3 rule: pivot comes from confirmed swing resistance preceding the final contraction trough. A fresh breakout spike needs future bars before it can become a confirmed swing, so the pivot cannot chase the breakout upward the next day.

Why shadow mode first: Phase 2A ML was trained on the old detector population. Switching stage/pivot definitions without rebuilding historical signals and retraining would create model-population drift.

Stage distribution

Current production

FAILED: 1

V3 shadow

FAILED: 1

Live stage comparison

Symbol	Old stage	V3 stage	Detail	Old pivot	V3 structural pivot	V3 distance	Pivot evidence	Contractions	Breakout evidence	Confidence
ALKEM close 5,136.00	FAILED	FAILED	FAILED_BREAKOUT	5,406.50 5.00% below	5,406.50 2026-08-28	5.00% below	CONFIRMED_SWING_RESISTANCE touches 18	9.2% → 3.9%	confirmed breakout later lost pivot on multiple closes	65%

ALKEM · V3 reasons

V3 structural pivot 5,406.50 (CONFIRMED_SWING_RESISTANCE, touches 18)
2 contraction(s); tightening 100%
final contraction 3.9%
5.00% below structural pivot
5D/20D volume 0.88x
day/20D breakout volume 0.92x
confirmed breakout later lost pivot on multiple closes
stage detail FAILED_BREAKOUT

Thresholds: confirm 0.27% · failure buffer 1.62% · pre-breakout zone 3.65% · extended 8.00%