OmmAlpha · VCP Stage Engine V3 Shadow

Read-only live comparison. Nothing on this page writes to production tables or changes ML predictions.

2026-09-30Live scan date

1Rows shadow-tested

0Stage classifications changed

vcp-stage-v3-shadow-1.0Shadow engine

Core V3 rule: pivot comes from confirmed swing resistance preceding the final contraction trough. A fresh breakout spike needs future bars before it can become a confirmed swing, so the pivot cannot chase the breakout upward the next day.

Why shadow mode first: Phase 2A ML was trained on the old detector population. Switching stage/pivot definitions without rebuilding historical signals and retraining would create model-population drift.

Stage distribution

Current production

FAILED: 1

V3 shadow

FAILED: 1

Live stage comparison

Symbol	Old stage	V3 stage	Detail	Old pivot	V3 structural pivot	V3 distance	Pivot evidence	Contractions	Breakout evidence	Confidence
EIHOTEL close 301.00	FAILED	FAILED	FAILED_BREAKOUT	307.95 2.26% below	307.50 2026-09-08	2.11% below	CONFIRMED_SWING_RESISTANCE touches 12	11.8% → 8.7% → 8.9%	confirmed breakout later lost pivot on multiple closes	85%

EIHOTEL · V3 reasons

V3 structural pivot 307.50 (CONFIRMED_SWING_RESISTANCE, touches 12)
3 contraction(s); tightening 100%
final contraction 8.8%
2.11% below structural pivot
5D/20D volume 1.60x
day/20D breakout volume 2.47x
confirmed breakout later lost pivot on multiple closes
stage detail FAILED_BREAKOUT

Thresholds: confirm 0.31% · failure buffer 1.85% · pre-breakout zone 4.17% · extended 8.00%