OmmAlpha · VCP Stage Engine V3 Shadow

Read-only live comparison. Nothing on this page writes to production tables or changes ML predictions.

2026-09-30Live scan date

1Rows shadow-tested

1Stage classifications changed

vcp-stage-v3-shadow-1.0Shadow engine

Core V3 rule: pivot comes from confirmed swing resistance preceding the final contraction trough. A fresh breakout spike needs future bars before it can become a confirmed swing, so the pivot cannot chase the breakout upward the next day.

Why shadow mode first: Phase 2A ML was trained on the old detector population. Switching stage/pivot definitions without rebuilding historical signals and retraining would create model-population drift.

Stage distribution

Current production

BREAKOUT: 1

V3 shadow

FAILED: 1

Live stage comparison

Symbol	Old stage	V3 stage	Detail	Old pivot	V3 structural pivot	V3 distance	Pivot evidence	Contractions	Breakout evidence	Confidence
NTPCGREEN close 93.60	BREAKOUT	FAILED	FAILED_BREAKOUT	93.85 0.27% below	93.85 2026-08-24	0.27% below	CONFIRMED_SWING_RESISTANCE touches 15	10.1% → 2.1%	confirmed breakout later lost pivot on multiple closes	65%

NTPCGREEN · V3 reasons

V3 structural pivot 93.85 (CONFIRMED_SWING_RESISTANCE, touches 15)
2 contraction(s); tightening 100%
final contraction 2.1%
0.27% below structural pivot
5D/20D volume 0.99x
day/20D breakout volume 1.10x
confirmed breakout later lost pivot on multiple closes
stage detail FAILED_BREAKOUT

Thresholds: confirm 0.26% · failure buffer 1.54% · pre-breakout zone 3.46% · extended 8.00%