OmmAlpha · VCP Stage Engine V5 Shadow

Read-only live comparison. Nothing on this page writes to production tables or changes ML predictions.

2026-09-30Live scan date

1Rows shadow-tested

0Stage classifications changed

vcp-stage-v5-shadow-1.0Shadow engine

Core V5 rule: stage describes the pattern lifecycle only. Structural maturity, pivot proximity and breakout acceptance determine DEVELOPING / DEVELOPED / PRE_BREAKOUT / BREAKOUT_PENDING / BREAKOUT / EXTENDED / FAILED. Trend-template, RS, moving-average alignment and 52-week-high context are reported separately as a quality gate, so a mature base is never mislabeled DEVELOPING merely because quality is weaker.

Why shadow mode first: Phase 2A ML was trained on the old detector population. V5 remains read-only until live classifications look sensible; production promotion must be followed by historical signal rebuild and ML retraining.

Stage distribution

Current production

FAILED: 1

V4 shadow

FAILED: 1

Live stage comparison

Symbol	Old stage	V5 stage	Detail	Old pivot	V5 structural pivot	V4 distance	Pivot evidence	Contractions	Breakout evidence	Quality	Confidence
HOMEFIRST close 1,102.00	FAILED	FAILED	FAILED_BREAKOUT	1,248.10 11.71% below	1,248.10 2026-09-08	11.71% below	CONFIRMED_SWING_RESISTANCE touches 1	6.3% → 6.2% → 5.3% → 3.1%	confirmed breakout lost structural pivot on consecutive closes	WEAK 1/4 checks	73%

HOMEFIRST · V4 reasons

V5 structural pivot 1,248.10 (CONFIRMED_SWING_RESISTANCE, touches 1)
4 contraction(s); tightening 100%
final contraction 3.1%
11.71% below structural pivot
5D/20D volume 0.99x
day/20D breakout volume 0.94x
separate quality gate WEAK (1/4 checks)
confirmed breakout lost structural pivot on consecutive closes
stage detail FAILED_BREAKOUT

Thresholds: confirm 0.45% · healthy retest 1.56% · failure buffer 2.45% · pre-breakout zone 6.02% · extended 8.92%